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Wednesday, March 25, 2020

The Wuhan Coronavirus

This morning's (3/25) reports from the five hardest hit provinces in China

Place cases recov'd deaths active
  1. Hubei 67,801 60,811 3161 3827
  2. Guangdong 1,433 1,336 8 89
  3. Henan 1,274 1,250 22 2
  4. Zhejiang 1,241 1,221 1 19
  5. Hunan 1,018 1,014 4 0
The death RATES can be bracketed by assuming all pending cases die or that all pending cases recover, both being less likely than that some do and some don't.
  1. Hubei 4.7% 4.9% 10.3%
  2. Guangdong 0.6% 0.6% 6.8%
  3. Henan 1.7% 1.7% 1.9%
  4. Zhejiang 0.1% 0.1% 1.6%
  5. Hunan 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
So, unless a whole bunch of new cases appear -- and the meejah are doing their best to raise this possibility -- the Wuhan epicenter (Hubei province) will probably run about 5% mortality. Probably because the govt there at first tried to conceal it and only took action after it was 'too big to fail.' None of the other high-case provinces touch this. Only neighboring Henan comes close, at just under 2%. Guangdong is currently at 0.6% and only if every pending case is mortal might it become as high as 6.8%. In Hunan, where all cases are resolved at this point, the mortality is less than half a percent.


1 comment:

  1. Death rates (deaths per number infected) are completely unknown for all the above. The only known is deaths per positive test. Number of positive tests only = number infected for closed systems in which all are tested, e.g. Diamond Princess. (Ignoring for a moment your points about sensitivity and specificity).

    ReplyDelete

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