A beautifully told story with colorful characters out of epic tradition, a tight and complex plot, and solid pacing. -- Booklist, starred review of On the Razor's Edge

Great writing, vivid scenarios, and thoughtful commentary ... the stories will linger after the last page is turned. -- Publisher's Weekly, on Captive Dreams

Saturday, October 29, 2011

What Hath Global Warming Wrought?

Snow near my brother's house by Philadelphia
It is snowing here in the Lehigh Valley.  Forecasts are for 4-8 inches.  It is not yet Hallow E'en.

Now, the IPCC models were always in agreement that most of the warming would take place in Northern Hemisphere winter nights (which actually doesn't sound so bad), so the trend toward colder over these past ten years or so is whiffing a lot like Popper.  But never fear: weather is not climate!  (Except when it is: cf. Katrina, Irene, Texas drought, etc.)  And it ain't global warming no more; it's climate change!  So any time the climate seems to change, it is due to climate change.  And never mind the dizzy spell from circular reasoning.  I suppose the orbits of the planets can now be explained by location change, too. 

The models also predict the atmosphere will warm first and most; but the satellite measurements persistently show otherwise.  Must be something wrong with the satellites, or the scientists who interpret them, or perhaps with the world itself, which insists on doing its own thing.  Surely, it cannot be because the climate models are not yet up to snuff.

Meanwhile, as a reminder, a glance at a chart I found back in 2009 shows the process rather well:
The arrow points to 2009.  The trend+MDO model predicts that temperature "anomalies" will continue to drop (on the average) until about 2030, then cycle up again until about 2060.  That's if the rebound from the Little Ice Age continues on a linear path.  (Personally, I think it will resemble more a logistic curve; but that's just me.)


  1. About spamming: to be able to use LJ, screen non-friends responses AND use LJ's captcha facility. Yes, it does have one, and I know because I use it.

  2. I have to ask: do you think continuing to burn fossil fuels is a good thing? Aren't there other externalities to our current energy system worth considering?

  3. I suppose. Just as there are to not burning them. Hydrocarbons are just too valuable as chemical feedstock to simply burn them for fuel. Nuclear is much better, though you may have trouble with your car exceeding the weight limit on bridges.

    It just has very little to do with the last 400 years of warming.


Whoa, What's This?

adam amateur theology anthropology aphorisms Aquinas argument from motion Aristotelianism art atheism autumn of the modern ages books brains breaking news captive dreams cartoon charts chieftain clannafhloinn comix commentary counterattack crusades culcha dogheads easton stuff economics eifelheim evolution factoids on parade fake news fallen angels Feeders fir trees in lungs firestar flicks floods flynncestry flynnstuff forecasts forest of time fun facts gandersauce gimlet eye global warming glvwg headlines henchmen high frontier history home front how to lie with statistics humor Hunters Moon hush-hush hypatia in the house of submission irish Iron Shirts irrationalism january dancer jihad journeyman kabuki kool letter lion's mouth lunacon maps mayerling medieval metrology miscellany modern mythology moose zombies music new years nexus odds odds and ends paleofuture passing of the modern age philosophy philosophy math poetry politics potpourri psyched out! public service quality quiet sun quote of the day razor's edge redefinition of marriage religio reviews river of stars scandal science science marches on scientism scrivening shipwrecks of time shroud skiffy skiffy in the news skools slipping masks some people will believe anything stats stories stranger things the auld curmudgeon the madness continues the new fascism the russians are coming the spiral arm the writing life thomism thought for the day thread o' years tofspot topology untergang des abendlandes untergang des morgenlandes up jim river video clips vignettes war on science we get letters we're all gonna die whimsy words at play wuv xmas you can't make this stuff up