Reviews

A beautifully told story with colorful characters out of epic tradition, a tight and complex plot, and solid pacing. -- Booklist, starred review of On the Razor's Edge

Great writing, vivid scenarios, and thoughtful commentary ... the stories will linger after the last page is turned. -- Publisher's Weekly, on Captive Dreams

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

The Wuhan Coronavirus

This morning's (3/25) reports from the five hardest hit provinces in China

Place cases recov'd deaths active
  1. Hubei 67,801 60,811 3161 3827
  2. Guangdong 1,433 1,336 8 89
  3. Henan 1,274 1,250 22 2
  4. Zhejiang 1,241 1,221 1 19
  5. Hunan 1,018 1,014 4 0
The death RATES can be bracketed by assuming all pending cases die or that all pending cases recover, both being less likely than that some do and some don't.
  1. Hubei 4.7% 4.9% 10.3%
  2. Guangdong 0.6% 0.6% 6.8%
  3. Henan 1.7% 1.7% 1.9%
  4. Zhejiang 0.1% 0.1% 1.6%
  5. Hunan 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
So, unless a whole bunch of new cases appear -- and the meejah are doing their best to raise this possibility -- the Wuhan epicenter (Hubei province) will probably run about 5% mortality. Probably because the govt there at first tried to conceal it and only took action after it was 'too big to fail.' None of the other high-case provinces touch this. Only neighboring Henan comes close, at just under 2%. Guangdong is currently at 0.6% and only if every pending case is mortal might it become as high as 6.8%. In Hunan, where all cases are resolved at this point, the mortality is less than half a percent.


5 comments:

  1. Death rates (deaths per number infected) are completely unknown for all the above. The only known is deaths per positive test. Number of positive tests only = number infected for closed systems in which all are tested, e.g. Diamond Princess. (Ignoring for a moment your points about sensitivity and specificity).

    ReplyDelete
  2. Shane TourtellotteApril 1, 2020 at 5:04 PM

    I procrastinated time and again in replying, almost to the point of not doing it. In the end, I couldn’t let this pass.

    Actions taken by the government of the People’s Republic of China, or elements thereof, regarding COVID-19 in the past four months include: halting lab study of the virus and ordering destruction of samples; arresting doctors who sounded the alarm about an outbreak and forcing at least one of them to sign a confession to criminal rumor-mongering (that doctor has since died of the disease); denying the possibility of human-to-human transmission to the World Health Organization; accusing the United States Army of bringing the disease into Wuhan; expelling foreign journalists who might deliver a story other than the one the Party promulgates; causing other critics of the Chinese outbreak response to “disappear.” These are highlights: the full list is considerably longer, especially if one adds elements we must consider speculative, or at least not fully confirmed.

    Given this, why on Earth or any other planet are you giving any credence to statistics issued from the PRC? If the numbers are from a government source, do you actually trust them? If they are from a non-government source, do you trust the government not to have “influenced” them? You have no data worthy of the name here.

    I’m mystified. For a while I thought you might be testing your readers, to see whether they made the mistake of taking these numbers, and analysis drawn from them, at face value. That doesn’t seem to be the case.

    I wish I knew what else to say. I don’t, so I’ll stop now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Always question the data. Always. Especially, China data.

      How are the terms defined? Were the definitions applied in the same way? Was the reporting agency trustworthy?

      It was /because/ the Chinese gov't did try to conceal the outbreak that the mortality rates there seemed so high when the lid finally blew off, this led some other governments to panic.

      But even the Chinese gov't needed actual data for themselves.

      Delete
    2. Added, in re Wuhan Coronavirus:
      https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/china/articles/20200331.aspx

      Delete
  3. Shane TourtellotteApril 3, 2020 at 6:12 PM

    True, the Chinese government needs actual, factual data. That doesn't mean they're necessarily getting it. Underlings may be feeding them numbers they think the higher-ups want to hear, or numbers the underlings think will let them keep their jobs. Or their liberty (or the facsimile they have). Or their metabolism.

    Future generations are going to see dry lists of figures from this period, and wonder why so many people in 2020 were overreacting, or underreacting, or both. And then maybe they'll have their own situation, and learn it anew.

    ReplyDelete

Whoa, What's This?

adam amateur theology anthropology aphorisms Aquinas argument from motion Aristotelianism art atheism autumn of the modern ages books brains breaking news captive dreams cartoon charts chieftain clannafhloinn comix commentary counterattack crusades culcha dogheads easton stuff economics eifelheim evolution factoids on parade fake news fallen angels Feeders fir trees in lungs firestar flicks floods flynncestry flynnstuff forecasts forest of time fun facts gandersauce gimlet eye global warming glvwg headlines henchmen high frontier history home front how to lie with statistics humor Hunters Moon hush-hush hypatia in the house of submission irish Iron Shirts irrationalism january dancer jihad journeyman kabuki kool letter lion's mouth lunacon maps mayerling medieval metrology miscellany modern mythology moose zombies music new years nexus odds odds and ends paleofuture passing of the modern age philosophy philosophy math poetry politics potpourri psyched out! public service quality quiet sun quote of the day razor's edge redefinition of marriage religio reviews river of stars scandal science science marches on scientism scrivening shipwrecks of time shroud skiffy skiffy in the news skools slipping masks some people will believe anything stats stories stranger things the auld curmudgeon the madness continues the new fascism the russians are coming the spiral arm the writing life thomism thought for the day thread o' years tofspot topology untergang des abendlandes untergang des morgenlandes up jim river video clips vignettes war on science we get letters we're all gonna die whimsy words at play wuv xmas you can't make this stuff up